← Back to fixtures

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

Sun 30 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Freiburg win: 50.1%

Draw: 24.5%

Werder Bremen win: 25.4%

Predicted: Freiburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.52

More corners: Freiburg (61.6% home / 38.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 65.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Freiburg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 25%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Freiburg (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.